SCENARIOS EVALUATED: Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts

Scenarios evaluated

7 are illustrated here. Each scenario corresponds to a different amount of contact rate, and can be understood in terms of:

  • The Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
  • The % of original \(R0\): % of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
  • The % increase from current: % increase from current (as of 2020-05-20) level of social distancing / contact rate
Scenario % of orig. R0 % increase from current Effective R0
0 23.0 0.00000 0.96
1 35.8 55.65217 1.49
2 48.7 111.73913 2.03
3 61.5 167.39130 2.56
4 74.3 223.04348 3.09
5 87.2 279.13043 3.63
6 100.0 334.78261 4.16

Maintain current level of social distancing

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 0.96
  • % of original R0: 23
  • % Increase from current: 0

% of original R0: 35.8

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 1.49
  • % of original R0: 35.8
  • % Increase from current: 55.6521739

% of original R0: 48.7

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 2.03
  • % of original R0: 48.7
  • % Increase from current: 111.7391304

% of original R0: 61.5

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 2.56
  • % of original R0: 61.5
  • % Increase from current: 167.3913043

% of original R0: 74.3

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3.09
  • % of original R0: 74.3
  • % Increase from current: 223.0434783

% of original R0: 87.2

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3.63
  • % of original R0: 87.2
  • % Increase from current: 279.1304348

% of original R0: 100

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 4.16
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 334.7826087